Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Originally posted on :

So we know the CDC, media, pandemic pooh-poohers like to trot out the estimated 36,000/year deaths in the US as gospel fact, well known. Those who are long time followers of this board know this is garbage and meaningless when dealing with a pandemic that strikes the young instead of the old. But what if we use their statistics against them? Here is the study that came up with 36,000 deaths/year: http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/289/2/179

The study includes a mortality by age table. Ages over 50 account for over 97.5% of flu deaths, according to the study, and children under 1 account for 0.25% Ages 5-49 are lumped together and account for the remaining ~2.25%. This makes it difficult to determine the percentage of mortality for those under the age of 18. For this analysis I will assume just under half, so all pediatric mortality will account for ~1.35% of total flu deaths.

Thus far, there are about 55 pediatric deaths associated with the pandemic virus. With these deaths accounting for ~1.35% of total mortality, that yields total US mortality so far ~4074. I challenge anyone to tell me why my analysis is any less valid than those who compare 36,000 estimated deaths (with <2000 actually identified in any given year) to the ~550 reported thus far, which is 500% higher than any other year where the CDC has reported officially counted deaths. I don't even know if gsgs could argue my statistics. ;)

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